XSha Tell 
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(7/12/06 12:12)
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Same war, different players
Same war, different players
Jul. 12, 2006. 01:00 AM
DR. GWYNNE DYER
1839, 1878, 1979, 2001: Four foreign invasions of Afghanistan in fewer than 200 years. The first two were British, and unashamedly imperialist. The third was Soviet and the invaders said they were there to defend socialism and help Afghanistan become a modern, prosperous state. The last was American, and the invaders said they were there to bring democracy and help Afghanistan become a modern, prosperous state. But all four invasions were doomed to fail (although the last still has some time to run).
When Britain deployed 3,300 troops to Helmand province early last month, then defence secretary John Reid said: "We hope we will leave Afghanistan without firing a single shot." But six British soldiers have been killed in combat since then, and new Defence Minister Des Browne announced on Monday that the British force is being increased by another 900 soldiers to cope with "unexpected" resistance.
The story is the same across southern Afghanistan. The Canadian army has lost six soldiers killed in action in Kandahar province since late April, and may soon face the same choice between reinforcing its troops or pulling them back, because the American combat troops in the vicinity are leaving at the end of this month. The U.S. forces are pulling out just in time. [IE USA/Bush did a "Cut And Run"]
A country that has been invaded four times in less than two centuries is bound to know a couple of things about dealing with foreign conquerors.
The first thing Afghans have learned is never to trust them, no matter how pure they say their intentions are. There are probably no more xenophobic people in the world than the Afghans and they have earned the right to be so. If there was ever a window of opportunity for the current crop of invaders to convince Afghans that this time is different, it closed some time ago.
The other thing Afghans know is how to deal with invaders. The invaders will always be richer and better armed, so let them occupy the country. Don't try to hold the cities; fade back into the mountains. Take a couple of years to regroup and set up your supply lines (mostly across the border from Pakistan, this time), and then start the guerrilla war in earnest. Ambush, harass and bleed the foreigners for as long as it takes. Eventually they will cut their losses and go home.
The endgame is beginning even in Kabul. Hamid Karzai, the West's chosen leader for Afghanistan, is now starting to make deals with the forces that will hold his life in their hands once the foreigners leave: the warlords and drug barons.
In April, he dropped many candidates who had been approved by the "coalition" powers from a list of new provincial police chiefs and substituted the names of known gangsters and criminals who work for the local warlords.
He will also have to talk to the Taliban before long.
The Taliban that Western troops are now fighting in Afghanistan is more inclusive than the narrow band of fanatics who imposed order on the country in 1996 after seven years of civil war. The current Afghan resistance movement includes farmers trying to protect their poppy fields, nationalists furious at the foreign presence, young men who just want to show that they are as brave as previous generations of Afghans — the usual grab-bag of motives that fuels any national resistance movement.
Nor is the regime that will eventually emerge in Kabul after the foreigners have gone home likely to resemble the old Taliban, a Pakistani-backed and almost entirely Pashto-speaking organization. The foreign invasion overthrew the long domination of the Pashto-speakers in Afghanistan (about 40 per cent of the population) and it is most unlikely that Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Turkmen will simply accept that domination again. Their own warlords will have to have a share of the power, too, and even Karzai might find a role.
Afghanistan will not be left to its own devices until after the people who ordered the invasion leave office, presumably next year for Tony Blair, and January 2009 for George W. Bush.
There is time for lots of killing yet.
But Afghanistan stands a reasonable chance of sorting itself out once the Western armies leave.
-------------------------------------------------------------------Gwynne Dyer is a Canadian journalist based in London.
www.gwynnedyer.net/
Columnist, broadcaster and lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years, but he was originally trained as an historian. Born in Newfoundland, he received degrees from Canadian, American and British universities, finishing with a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London. He served in three navies and held academic appointments at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University before launching his twice-weekly column on international affairs, which is published by over 175 papers in some 45 countries.
His first television series, the 7-part documentary 'War', was aired in 45 countries in the mid-80s. One episode, 'The Profession of Arms', was nominated for an Academy Award.
His more recent works include the 1994 series 'The Human Race', and 'Protection Force', a three-part series on peacekeepers in Bosnia, both of which won Gemini awards.
His award-winning radio documentaries include 'The Gorbachev Revolution', a seven-part series based on Dyer's experiences in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in 1987-90, and 'Millenium', a six-hour series on the emerging global culture.
Copyright Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. online since 1996.
Edited by: XSha Tell at: 7/12/06 12:13
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