June 2004

Welcome to the campaign. In 2004, the incumbent President George W. Bush faces the Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.

The top issues of the day are: The War in Iraq, Terrorism, the Economy, & Moral Values.

Other issues include Health Care, Education, & Taxation.

Here are your candidate attributes:

President George W. Bush (R)

Home State: TX, Voting Block Bonus: Conservative Christians (+20%), Domestic Policy: 40%, Foreign Policy 60%, Debate Skills: Medium, Charisma: Medium, Political Capital: 20, Issue Bonuses: Terrorism, Taxes

Senator John Kerry (D)

Home State: MA, Voting Block Bonus: Senior Citizens (+20%), Domestic Policy: 60%, Foreign Policy: 40%, Debate Skills: High, Charisma: Medium, Political Capital: 20, Issue Bonuses: Iraq, Economy

Given the high level of national interest in this campaign, voter turnout is expected to be high. Consequently, both parties will contribute an extra 10 PC to their presidential campaigns.

Instructions: Available Political Capital: Kerry: 30 Bush: 30

Kerry, please designate how much PC to use target each the following blocks:

Voting Block        Value        Interest
Minorities / Immigrants        20%        25%
Organized Labor        10%        50%
Senior Citizens        15%        70%
Environmental Lobby        5%        50%

Bush, please designate how much PC to target each the following blocks:

Voting Block        Value        Interest
Conservative Christians        20%        70%
Corporations        15%        50%
Pro-Life / Pro-Choice        10%        50%
Gun Owners        5%        50%

Edited by: jwlbigdog at: 6/18/05 3:07 am

October 14 – 20, 2004

Campaign Trail (Round 4)

News:

The Third Presidential Debate was ruled 9 – 2 in favor of Kerry. Despite the spin from the Republicans, all of America witnessed a very strong performance from the challenger and a very poor performance from the President.

John Kerry shone in his presentation of a plan to rid the world of terrorism while honoring the sovereignty of other nations. He came across as a decisive leader, while Bush appeared feeble trying to organize his thoughts. The Senator was also strong on domestic issues, finally defining his position on health care, education, and his economic policies.

Bush, however, made a major gaffe by using an inappropriate term when referring to homosexuals, hurting his position on moral values. The President was able to salvage some of his evening by scoring well on taxation and finally offering a alternative to the Democratic health care plan. He also brought up some new economic data, showing the economy might be heading for a turnaround.

The effects of this debate are now starting to show in the polls. Kerry now has a small lead in the national polls, though still well within the margin of error. However, not as much movement has appeared in the state polling, leading some analysts to wonder if many undecided voters had already made up their minds before this last debate. A few states favoring Bush have tightened, but none have changed hands. The debate results are sure to give some of those voters pause, and the may still be more poll movement to come.


Political Capital Remaining:
Kerry:                9
Bush:                6



Instructions:

Please designate the states (max four, plus the running mate bonus) to campaign in during this turn.






Projected Electoral Vote:

Kerry:                183

Bush:                166

Toss-up:        189



National Polls:

Kerry:                48.7%

Bush:                47.8%

Undecided:        3.6%



State Polls:

Toss-up:                        D                        R                        U

Florida        48.2%        48.7%        3.0%
Minnesota        47.7%        45.9%        6.4%
New Hampshire        47.2%        45.7%        7.1%
New Mexico        48.0%        48.3%        3.7%
Ohio        47.4%        47.8%        4.8%
Pennsylvania        48.2%        46.8%        5.0%
Wisconsin        46.7%        47.5%        5.8%

Leaning Kerry:

Iowa        48.8%        46.3%        4.9%
Michigan        49.8%        45.1%        5.2%
Oregon        49.3%        47.0%        3.7%







Leaning Bush:

Arizona        43.7%        48.4%        7.9%
Arkansas        46.0%        49.9%        4.1%
Colorado        44.5%        48.8%        6.7%
Missouri        46.5%        49.8%        3.7%
Nevada        45.8%        49.1%        5.2%
North Carolina        46.5%        49.1%        4.4%
West Virginia        45.3%        49.5%        5.2%

Favors Kerry:

California        53.1%        45.4%        1.5%
Illinois        51.2%        42.1%        6.7%
Maine        51.3%        44.2%        4.5%
New Jersey        53.7%        42.5%        3.8%
Vermont        50.7%        42.5%        6.8%
Washington        51.8%        44.1%        4.1%

Favors Bush:

Georgia        43.4%        51.9%        4.6%
Indiana        45.4%        52.5%        2.1%
Kentucky        43.0%        50.3%        6.7%
Louisiana        43.1%        49.5%        7.4%
Mississippi        43.1%        51.8%        5.1%
Oklahoma        45.6%        54.0%        0.4%
South Carolina        43.6%        52.0%        4.4%
Tennessee        45.2%        53.4%        1.4%
Virginia        44.9%        50.4%        4.6%


The following states are not considered competitive:

Kerry: CT, DE, DC, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI

Bush: AL, AK, ID, KS, MT, NE, ND, SD, TX, UT, WY       

Edited by: jwlbigdog at: 6/24/05 6:30 pm